The cost of maintaining and upgrading America’s nuclear arsenal continues to skyrocket.
A new report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released on April 24 projects that nuclear operations, sustainment, and modernization will cost U.S. taxpayers $946 billion over the next decade.
Covering the years 2025 through 2034, the estimate is based on the fiscal year 2025 budget requests submitted by the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Energy (DoE) in March 2024.
The latest figure marks a 25 percent increase — $190 billion more — compared to the CBO’s previous projection for 2023–2032.
Rising program costs, particularly from the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) initiative, and the two-year shift in the covered period contributed to the jump.
Nuclear forces to average $95 billion a year
According to the CBO report, sustaining and modernizing the nuclear arsenal will cost about $95 billion annually over the decade.
The report outlines a detailed breakdown: $357 billion will go toward operating and sustaining current and future nuclear forces and support activities, while $309 billion is earmarked for modernizing delivery systems and the warheads they carry.
Another $72 billion is allocated for facility and equipment modernization at nuclear laboratories, and $79 billion will fund upgrades to command, control, communications, and early-warning systems.
An additional $129 billion accounts for potential cost overruns, based on historical patterns.
The CBO noted that nuclear acquisition programs are expected to account for 11.8 percent of the DoD’s total acquisition costs laid out in the FY25 budget.
Those figures could shift depending on how the Trump administration structures its FY26 defense budget request.
Rising costs could impact broader defense spending
The report highlights that the nuclear budget’s share of national defense spending will grow significantly.
Between 2025 and 2034, nuclear forces are projected to make up 8.4 percent of overall defense expenditures, a sharp increase from 3.9 percent in 2014.
Costs are expected to peak early in the next decade, rising from 10.1 percent of the acquisition budget in 2025 to 13.2 percent by 2031 before slightly declining to 10.7 percent by 2034.
Analysts warn that the surging nuclear price tag could complicate efforts to raise the total U.S. military budget to $1 trillion by 2026, as promised by President Donald Trump.
Although Trump has pushed for a stronger military, reports suggest he remains reluctant to develop new nuclear weapons and has shown interest in negotiating broader arms deals with other nations.
Sentinel ICBM program drives cost overruns
The Sentinel ICBM program emerged as a major driver of the budget increase.
Pentagon officials disclosed that the Sentinel effort is 81 percent over its original baseline cost estimate, although the CBO’s $946 billion figure does not fully account for the most recent overrun assessments.
In a statement quoted by USA Today, Arms Control Association executive director Daryl Kimball said, “The skyrocketing costs of the U.S. nuclear arsenal are likely to go even higher.” He emphasized that the estimate “does not fully reflect recently assessed cost increases for the Sentinel program.”
Kimball urged the Trump administration to engage China on arms control measures and to maintain nuclear weapons deployment limits outlined by the New START treaty with Russia, warning, “Failure to do so will undermine U.S. and global security and could mean that more taxpayer dollars are wasted on weapons of mass destruction rather than programs that meet real human needs.”
Breakdown of America’s nuclear spending
The CBO organized its cost estimates into four main categories. Strategic nuclear delivery systems and weapons account for $454 billion, with about half dedicated to ballistic missile submarines.
Tactical nuclear systems, such as F-35 aircraft and the sea-launched cruise missile SLCM-N, total $15 billion.
Another $193 billion will fund activities at nuclear weapons laboratories and production facilities, while $154 billion will support command, control, communications, and early-warning systems necessary for operating the arsenal.
Advocates for nuclear modernization argue that updating the arsenal is vital for U.S. security, especially in a world marked by growing competition with Russia and China.
However, the enormous costs have intensified debates over the future of America’s nuclear posture.
